Budget 2014: Najib’s transition to hand-to-mouth economy and abandonment of ‘the future’
BN managed to steal another term at the seat of government despite commanding less than majority support of the electorate in the GE13. Any right thinking organisation who suffers a
near defeat like thus would be taking a hard look of reassessment in the mirror, and right the wrongs that got them there in the first place.
The 2014 budget would be the ideal opportunity and crucial platform for Najib to convert the promise he made on the campaign trail pre-PRU13 of 'transformation' and reform into reality. With the budget for the forthcoming year tabled afore our eyes, not only do we see that it was all a lie, it is also clear that there was no intention to transform in the first place.
Since the 5th of May, the BN government is not only refusing to right the wrongs and have seen very little ‘transformation’ if not none at all, but definitely a great deal more of the same old ugly traits of the devil we have known for too well and too long.
The government’s own figures shows that 60% of the nation are eligible for BR1M thereby 60% of Malaysians earn less than RM3000 per month thereby being below the tax paying threshold. With the introduction of GST, they will now be paying tax. We can see through the tabling of the GST, that BN is adversely affecting, in effect robbing the general masses including the poor and struggling lower middle class, to further enrich the super rich, as seen from 1% reduction of corporate tax.
What is also damningly worrying is the general direction of the BN government’s economic rationale. In simple terms, the ratio between operational expenditure (OpEx) and development expenditure (DevEx) is akin to the relationship to a business’s ration between money allocated to overhead and paying the bills (OpEx) and money allocated to buying assets and equipment to improve or expand and develop.
The general rule of thumb when looking at administrative budgets is that a year-on-year increase in the OpEx budget, means the more the organisation is having to focus on the present, vis a vis a reduced focus on the future. Naturally, the higher the percentage of DevEx signals a stronger focus on improving the organisations capacity to grow or develop, thereby less of a focus on the future.
What we can see on the graph (Fig.1) above is a systematically orchestrated decrease in DevEx since 2010. More astounding, not only is this trend apparent in terms of DevOp percentage of total budget, but in absolute currency term, the BN Government is cutting DevOp by 3.2 billion, a whopping 6 % year on year. This is counter-characteristic to a developing nation claiming to gun for developed status within the next 6 years, and clearly shows that Najib is abandoning investments in future growth.
Corresponding to that, year on year increase in OpEx sounds another spine-shivering alarm bell. The systematic increase in of OpEx from 73.6% when Najib first tabled a budget as Finance minister cum Prime Minister, to its current crippling 82% signals an unsustainably ballooning government bubble, heading for inevitable explosion.
Some conspiracy theorists have touted this as Najib’s strategy of ‘investing’ in a larger ‘brainwashing training camp’, in the guise of a growing civil service which BN views as a fixed deposit constituency, to ensure continued support for BN. In political-economic term, this is simply too much government, with no governance, at the expense of the nation’s future.
The general outlook if I had to give one on this particularly budget based on these figures, which is but the tip of the enormously huge RM264.3 Billion iceberg, is thus; Najib has only the interest of maintaining power, apparent in his astoundingly bold increase in resources he intends to deploy in growing the ill-fit-for-purpose government machinery; and near-blind-shortsighted-ness in fatally cutting DevEx, indicative of an abandonment of any investment in the future beyond this election cycle.
Najib is nursing his desperation and maintaining the 56 year old lie that is BN at the expense of not just the Malaysians today, but our generations to come. GST, rising fuel costs and abolishment of sugar subsidies are frightening but is but a small part of the darkness in the coming four years ahead.
Those walking the corridors of power are laughing at us whilst we face dark prospects ahead. We the people have but limited options in voicing our fears and choosing an alternative path, one of which is through the process of democratic elections. That Failed.
What other options do we have?
By
Enflaming
Really
Strong
Insurrecting
Hearts
4 a better Malaysia to do the needful? Maybe….
虽然国阵在第13届大选以多数席位取得了继续执政的权利，但众所周知，这是历史上国阵第一次输掉多数票，即只获47.4%得票率。面对这样的情况，任何一个有思维能力的组织都会对其过去的表现采取重新评估，思考导致票数滑落的原因，并纠正所犯下的错误。
2014年财政预算案将是一个非常好的平台让首相纳吉展现如何将其在大选前承诺的“转型计划”化为现实。但从刚新提交的财政预算中，可以明显地看得出这只是一个大选前对人民谎言，政府根本未曾考虑过转型计划。
对于国阵常年不变的各种陋行，人民早已司空见惯，习以为常。自5月5以来，政府不但没有纠正过去的错误，反而辩本加利。
政府数据显示，我国60%的人民有资格申请一马援助金，这意味着这60%的马来西亚子民月薪低于3千令吉或低于纳税门槛。随着6%的消费税被推出后，这群低收入者开始需要付税了，意思是现在每个人都是纳税人。政府给予大型企业1%税减的同时却向人民征收6%的消费税，无意中增加了下层及中下层人民的负担。简称，这项税制惠及了富人，却不利于穷人。
无论如何，最令人担忧的不是税制，而是国阵政府对经济合理性(Economic Rationalization)的大方向。国家营运开销(OP EX)与发展开销(DEV EX)的比例，反映着政府花费在行政上的消费，与政府购买资产、发展或扩展设施之间的比例。
倘若政府把钱花在发展开销，相等于把钱投资于未来，除了提升国家的发展外，也帮助吸引外来投资。2014年预算营运开销为2千177亿令吉，占总开销的82%，比以往的开销再创新高，相反地，政府花在发展的开销只有区区467亿令吉，相等于总开销的18%，这意味着政府专注于现在多余未来，并把八成以上的资金用于现在的行政消费上。
左上图为自2010起逐年下降的发展开销，下降的百分比趋势相当明显，比起去年，今年的发展开销被削减了多达6%，以数字来看更为惊人，既是3.2亿令吉。对于一个声称要在未来6年内成为先进国的发展中国家来说，这是一个反方向的趋势，绝对不利于国家发展。我们可以从中看见首先纳吉的说法与做法是互相矛盾的。
另一方面，我国的营运开销则不断上涨，严重敲响国家的经济警钟。2009年，身兼财政部长的首相纳吉第一次提交预算案时，国家营运开销为76.6%，，现在，已被提升至82%，它就像是一个持续性增长的泡沫，最终只会走向无可避免的爆破。
一些理论家认为，纳吉此策略目的是为了一个更大的投资，就是“洗脑训练营”。他们认为我国过百万名的公务员被国阵视为获取庞大选票的工具，国阵政府必须从优对待他们，并以洗脑手法确保他们继续忠心于国阵。在政治经济术语，这称之为太多的统治，却没有治理，从而牺牲了人民的未来。
倘若要我对于这个总开销为264亿令吉巨款的财政预算案作出评论，我只能说从政府逐年削减发展开销，却大胆提升营运消费以满足各部门的开销需求，包括花在一些不必要的浪费来看，纳吉无意在大选后对未来作出任何投资计划。
纳吉在掩饰着他的绝望及国阵56年来的谎言，他们不但为得其所益而欺骗人民，更牺牲了我们下一代的将来。消费税，燃油起价，废除白糖津贴，通通听起来令人望而生畏，但我相信这只是在未来黑暗的四年里一小部分恶讯。
那些走在政治权力走廊上的当权者在嘲笑前景黑暗的我们。在我国，人民没有权利任由地发表心声，只有靠民主的选举才能把人民的心意表现出来，但都失败了。那么，我们还有其它管道让政府听见人民的心声吗？
By
Enflaming - 净
Really - 选
Strong - 盟
Insurrecting - 集
Hearts - 会
4 a better Malaysia to do the needful? 或许…
